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SPF - Survey of Professional Forecasters


Contact , Data

 
Contact
 Contact person Statistical Information Request form,
European Central Bank
 Address PO Box 16 03 19
Frankfurt am Main
Germany, D-60066
 
Data Go to the top of SPF - Survey of Professional Forecasters.
  Description The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey of expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. The survey is called the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to reflect the fact that all of the participants are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union. Additional information can be found in Occasional Paper No. 8 "An introduction to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters". Results are reported in the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin on a quarterly basis (i.e. in the February, May, August and November issues).
  Documentation

Additional information can be found in Occasional Paper No. 8 "An introduction to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters" and ECB's website http://www.ecb.int/stats/prices/indic/forecast/html/index.en.html.

  Source agency European Central Bank
  Periodicity Quarterly
  Update frequency SPF database is updated quarterly: February, May, August and November.
  Catalog Download the series catalogue (complete list of series) of the dataset SPF (Public) (including the metadata): Excel 2013 or the earlier Excel versions.
  ECB dataset naming convention

A series code is composed of up to 25 characters and contains 6 to 8 dimenisons: The key family identifier, the frequency, the country/area code, the forecast topic, the forecast histograph breakdown, the forecast horizon, frequency of the survey and the forecast identifier. Dimensions are separated by a dot.

For example: SPF.Q.U2.RGDP.F0_0T0_4.M3M.Q.NUM

Position Dimension Lenght Example Comments
1-3 The key family identifier 3 SPF always SPF
5 Frequency 1 Q A: annual; Q: quarterly; M: monthly
7-8 Area code 2 U2 U2: Euro area (changing composition)
10-13 Forecast topic 4 RGDP HICP: change of the harmonised consumer price index in percent per year; RGDP: change of the real gross domestic product in percent per year; UNEM: level of unemployment in percent; ASSU: assumptions
variable Forecast histographic breakdown up to 10 F0_0T0_4 F0_0T0_4: from 0.0 to 0.4
variable Forecast horizon up to 4 M3M M3M: Reference period ends 3 months before survey cycle begins
variable Frequency of the survey 1 Q Q: quarterly
variable Forecaster identifier 3 NUM NUM: Number of number of responses; AVG: average; VAR: variance ; PFC: number of point forecasts in a probability interval; ECB: Reference value supplied by ECB